Intercontinental Exchange Q3 2026: net revenue up 15% to $2.77B as futures volume jumped 31%

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which runs the New York Stock Exchange, the ICE futures exchanges and clearing houses, a bond-data business and the Encompass/Black Knight mortgage software platforms, grew net revenues 15% to $2.77 billion in the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 18% to $1.67, and adjusted EPS, which strips out acquisition amortization, deal costs and investment gains, also rose 18% to $2.02. The company called it the best third quarter in its history.

The driver was trading. Futures and options volume rose 31%, with Brent oil, European gas, sugar, coffee and European interest-rate futures all busier as markets reacted to the Middle East conflict, weather-driven crop concerns and uncertain central-bank rate paths. Trading ("transaction") revenue rose 23%, while subscription-style ("recurring") revenue grew a steadier 7%.

A note on "revenue": ICE reports total revenues of $3.63 billion, but that includes pass-through items: $283 million of SEC Section 31 fees (a regulatory fee ICE collects from traders and hands to the SEC; the fee rate was zero in Q3 2025, which is why total revenue grew a misleading 21%) and $582 million of liquidity rebates, routing and clearing payments to trading firms. This report uses net revenues (total revenues less those transaction-based expenses), which is what ICE keeps and what management guides on.

Key metrics

Operating margin is the share of net revenue left after running the business, before interest and tax. Open interest is the number of futures and options contracts still held open at quarter-end; it shows how much hedging and positioning customers are carrying forward, so it tends to lead future trading.

Exchanges: a broad trading surge

• Energy (ICE's largest trading business) reversed Q2's decline: volume rose 18% and revenue 25%. Oil volume rose 19%, which the filing attributes to "higher Brent volume, driven by price volatility and supply uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East." Natural gas volume rose 17%, led by the Dutch TTF benchmark. Revenue grew faster than volume because the average fee per contract ("rate per contract") rose 6% to $1.89.
• Agricultural and metals volume rose 57%. Sugar volume rose 75% on "a tighter global supply outlook driven by unfavorable weather conditions" and possible El Niño effects; coffee and cocoa were also busier.
• Financial futures volume rose 45%, mainly Euribor and SONIA (euro and sterling short-term interest-rate futures), which the filing ties to eurozone inflation concerns and uncertainty over ECB and Bank of England rate paths. The rate per contract fell 5% to $0.58, so revenue (+37%) grew slower than volume.
• NYSE cash equities is a pricing story, not a volume story: handled volume actually fell 2%, but the revenue captured per 100 shares rose 40% to $0.045, lifting net cash-equities revenue to $96 million from $69 million.

Fixed Income & Data Services: steady, with deal costs in the GAAP margin

Segment revenue rose 9% to $674 million. Fixed income data and analytics (bond pricing, reference data, indices) grew 8% to $336 million; data and network technology grew 10% to $202 million on the ICE Global Network; credit default swap (CDS) clearing rose 12% to $102 million as notional cleared rose to $8.8 trillion from $7.0 trillion. Annual Subscription Value, the subscription revenue already contracted for the next 12 months, was $2.107 billion, up 7.7%.

The GAAP operating margin fell to 36% from 39% because the segment absorbed $27 million of transaction costs for the pending MarketAxess acquisition. On an adjusted basis the margin rose a point to 46%.

Mortgage Technology: slow growth, thin GAAP profit

Revenue rose 4% to $549 million: servicing software +6% (new MSP clients, contractual price increases and more foreclosure and loss-mitigation work), data and analytics +6%, closing solutions +4%, and origination technology only +1%. GAAP operating income fell to $13 million from $22 million, because $186 million of amortization from the Black Knight purchase and $20 million of integration costs absorb almost all of the segment's profit. Adjusted operating income slipped 2% to $219 million and the adjusted margin fell to 40% from 42%, as adjusted expenses rose 8% against 4% revenue growth. This is the one segment where costs outran revenue this quarter.

What the headline numbers hide

• GAAP vs adjusted: the gap is $0.35 per share ($940 million GAAP vs $1,136 million adjusted net income). Almost all of it is the recurring $239 million of acquisition-related amortization (a non-cash charge for writing down intangible assets bought with Black Knight and other deals) plus $48 million of transaction and integration costs. Because both GAAP and adjusted EPS grew about 18%, the exclusions do not change the story this quarter.
• One-offs in either year: Q3 2025 had a $33 million fair-value gain on equity investments and $40 million of income from unconsolidated investees (mainly the Options Clearing Corporation); this year had none of the gain and $16 million of investee income. Against that, this year carries $48 million of deal costs and $6 million of net interest on the debt raised early for MarketAxess. These roughly offset: pre-tax income rose 14.9%, close to net revenue growth of 14.7%. The large Polymarket and Bakkt fair-value gains ($452 million year to date) landed in the first half, not this quarter.
• Interest costs are rising: interest expense rose to $222 million from $192 million, including $22 million on the $3.75 billion of notes issued on August 20 to fund MarketAxess (partly offset by $16 million earned on the parked proceeds). Total debt was $23.3 billion at September 30.
• Buybacks: ICE repurchased $400 million of stock in the quarter, and diluted shares fell 1.9%. That explains about 2 points of the 18% EPS growth; the rest came from operations.
• Cash conversion: year to date, operating cash flow was $4,486 million against net income of $3,363 million, helped by tax refunds and Section 31 fee timing. Adjusted free cash flow (which strips out Section 31 timing) was $3,728 million, slightly above adjusted net income of $3,548 million, so profits are turning into cash.
• Against guidance: adjusted operating expenses of $1,068 million landed in the middle of the $1,063–1,073 million range given in July. GAAP expenses of $1,355 million were above the $1,298–1,308 million GAAP range; the $48 million of deal and integration costs accounts for nearly all of the overshoot. Diluted shares of 563 million were inside the 560–566 million range.

On balance the quarter is clean: GAAP and adjusted EPS both grew about 18%, pre-tax income grew in line with net revenue, and buybacks added only about 2 points.

Takeaway: This was a trading quarter. Transaction revenue rose 23% on 31% higher futures volume, and because ICE's costs grew only 9% on an adjusted basis, a 15% revenue gain became 18% EPS growth. The subscription base (+7% recurring revenue, +7.7% subscription value) is still growing, but this quarter's acceleration came from volatile commodity and rate markets, which can reverse quickly, as Q2's 21% drop in energy volume showed.

Did last time's read hold up?

Our Q2 2026 report said trading was the swing factor after energy volume fell 21%, called the 20% rise in open interest "the most encouraging trading signal for the second half," and warned that rising expenses and MarketAxess debt costs would weigh on earnings. The trading call held: energy volume returned to 18% growth and total futures volume rose 31%. The cost warning only partly held. Adjusted expenses did step up (to $1,068 million, up 9% year on year), and interest on the new notes appeared, but revenue growth far outran both. Open interest growth has slowed to 13% from 20%, which is worth watching for Q4.

Guidance and outlook

Management's updated guidance in the October 29 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K):

ICE now expects MarketAxess to close in the first quarter of 2027, earlier than the first-half timeline it gave in July, after U.S. antitrust regulators ended their review early on October 21. The CFO said capital returns will continue "alongside our deleveraging plan" after the deal closes.

Our read: recurring revenue guidance moved up at both businesses, which gives a firmer base. The capex increase (about $200 million more than in July) and Q4 adjusted expenses guided above Q3's $1,068 million mean costs keep climbing. Q4 adjusted non-operating expense of $175–185 million, compared with $168 million of GAAP other expense in Q3, shows the MarketAxess debt starting to cost money before the deal adds revenue. If trading volumes cool from Q3's elevated levels, EPS growth will slow toward the high-single-digit growth of the recurring base. Readers should track open interest and the energy rate per contract as the early signs.

Source: ICE Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 (filed October 29, 2026); guidance from the same-day earnings release.