Nucor Q3 2026: EPS more than doubled to $5.80 as mill prices rose $195 a ton and scrap just $30

Nucor's third quarter was a price story. The steel mills sold their external tons at an average of $1,233 a ton, $195 more than a year earlier, while the scrap and scrap substitutes they melt cost $421 a ton, only $30 more. That gap is what drives a scrap-based steelmaker's profit, and it pushed the steel mills segment's pre-tax earnings to $1.79 billion from $793 million. Net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders rose 117% to $1.32 billion, or $5.80 per diluted share against $2.63. This report is written from the earnings release Nucor filed on October 26, 2026 (8-K, Exhibit 99.1). The full 10-Q isn't filed yet, so backlog figures and the detailed management discussion (MD&A) aren't available.

Nucor doesn't report an "operating income" line, so the operating margin above adds net interest back to pre-tax earnings. That is the same method as our Q2 report.

Takeaway: Higher volume helped, but price did most of the work. Steel mill selling prices rose 19% while scrap rose 8%, so most of the extra $995 million of mill profit came from a wider spread on every ton. For Q4, management guides earnings in line with or modestly higher than Q3, which means it expects that spread to hold for another quarter.

Where the profit came from

Pre-tax earnings by segment (millions):

Steel mills. Nucor says the improvement over Q2 came from "higher average selling prices and increased volumes, partially offset by higher costs of products sold." Q2's mill costs were also lowered by $130 million of cash refunds on earlier raw-material purchases, which did not happen again in Q3. Without that refund, Q2 mill earnings were about $1.43 billion, so the underlying gain from Q2 to Q3 was about 25%, not the reported 15%. Plate led the volume gains (782 thousand tons, up 32% on the year). Bars rose 14% and structural steel 12%, while sheet, the largest product, rose 8%. Utilization (how much of the mills' capacity was actually running) reached 89%, against 85% a year ago and 91% in Q2.

A note on the spread figure. The "metal spread" or "metal margin" is the selling price of a ton of steel minus the cost of the scrap melted to make it. Nucor states its selling price per net ton (2,000 lb) and its scrap cost per gross ton (2,240 lb), and a ton of steel takes somewhat more than a ton of scrap to make. The $812 figure is therefore a rough measure. The direction is reliable, though: steel prices rose $195 a ton over the year while scrap rose $30.

Steel products (joists, deck, rebar fabrication, tubing, building systems and other downstream products) earned $465 million, against $319 million a year earlier and $353 million in Q2. External tons rose 15% year over year and the average selling price rose 9% to $2,576 a ton. Tubular products drove the volume growth, with 375 thousand tons against 206 thousand. Over the quarter Nucor credits "higher volumes and higher average realized pricing."

Raw materials (scrap processing and the DRI plant; DRI, or direct reduced iron, is a refined iron feedstock) fell to $105 million from Q2's $146 million on "lower pricing and shipments". External raw-material tons fell 23% from Q2.

Corporate/eliminations cost $491 million, up from $272 million a year earlier. Against Q2, Nucor attributes the increase mainly to the absence of the Helion gain. The release doesn't explain the year-over-year increase. Nucor's profit-sharing and incentive pay rise with earnings, and marketing, administrative and other expenses rose 48% to $444 million. The 10-Q should show how much of the increase is pay linked to profits.

What the headline numbers hide

• No large one-offs this quarter. The only unusual item is $17 million of losses and impairments of assets, under 1% of pre-tax earnings. Q3 2025 had none. The $130 million refund and the $61 million Helion gain that flattered Q2 belong to the Q2 comparison, not to this one. The year-over-year figures compare two ordinary quarters.
• Start-up costs still weigh on earnings. Pre-operating and start-up costs were $124 million ($0.42 per diluted share), up from $103 million ($0.34) a year ago. The West Virginia sheet mill made its first steel in September, so these costs should start to fall as that mill ramps up. EPS excluding them would be higher, but Nucor doesn't present an adjusted figure for Q3. We report $5.80 as given.
• Cash conversion was strong in spite of a working-capital build. Q3 operating cash flow was about $2.24 billion against $1.47 billion of net earnings before noncontrolling interests. For the nine months it was $4.52 billion against $3.62 billion. Receivables rose to $4.30 billion from $3.11 billion at year-end (+38%), while nine-month sales grew 26%. Higher prices per ton explain most of that gap, but receivables are worth watching if steel prices turn.
• Buybacks and tax added little. Diluted shares averaged 226.7 million, 1.5% fewer than a year ago, which accounts for only a small part of the 121% EPS increase. The tax rate was 21.1% against 22.6%, also a minor help. Nearly all of the growth came from the steel operations.
• Minority partners took a larger share. Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests (the partners' share of the joint ventures Nucor consolidates) doubled to $154 million from $76 million. So net earnings before that line grew a little more slowly (+116%) than the earnings belonging to Nucor shareholders (+117%). The difference is small.
• Guidance. In Q2, management guided for "higher consolidated earnings" in Q3. Reported EPS rose 15% and adjusted EPS 20%, so the guidance was met.

On balance the quarter is clean: EPS rose 121% almost entirely because steel prices outran scrap costs at higher volumes, with only a $17 million impairment as a one-off and a 1.5% lower share count doing little of the work.

Did last time's read hold up?

Mostly yes. Our Q2 report said Q3 profit growth "has to come from price outrunning scrap" with volumes roughly flat, and said Q3 had a tougher base because of the $130 million refund and $61 million Helion gain. Both came true. Mill prices rose $88 a ton from Q2 while scrap stayed flat at $421-422, external mill tons were flat (5,662 thousand against 5,659 thousand), and earnings still rose against Q2 despite the missing one-offs. We also said that a recovery in steel products, where prices would catch up with steel costs, would matter. It happened: the segment's earnings rose 32% from Q2 on higher prices and volumes. The Q2 guidance also called for lower raw materials earnings, which is what happened.

Capital returned and balance sheet

Nucor bought back about 2.03 million shares at an average $247.04 in Q3. The cash flow statement shows $501 million of buybacks and $128 million of dividends for the quarter, derived by subtracting the first-half figures from the nine-month ones. The total matches the $629 million the release states. Over nine months Nucor returned about $1.36 billion. Nine-month capex fell to $1.86 billion from $2.62 billion as the large build-out winds down. Cash and short-term investments were $3.64 billion against total debt of about $7.1 billion, and the $2.25 billion revolving credit line remains undrawn.

Outlook

Management expects Q4 2026 earnings to be "generally in-line with or modestly higher than the third quarter":

• Steel mills: stable earnings, as "higher realized pricing" is offset by seasonally lower volumes and higher costs.
• Steel products: stable, with higher realized pricing offsetting seasonally lower volumes.
• Raw materials: slightly lower on lower realized DRI pricing.
• Intersegment eliminations: expected to decrease, which helps the consolidated figure.

Our read: Q4 is usually Nucor's slowest quarter for volume, so guidance of flat to higher earnings depends on the price increases already in place holding up. The spread is already at its widest of the last year. It is supported mainly by trade policy that limits imports, which keeps US prices high. Scrap has stayed flat, and a jump in scrap costs would narrow the spread quickly. Two things to watch in the 10-Q and on the call: whether backlogs at the mills and the steel-products businesses held up into Q4, and how quickly start-up costs at West Virginia come down. A steady decline in those costs would let Q4 come in at the "modestly higher" end of the guidance even with lower volumes.