Earnings week ahead: Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon lead 29 companies reporting Oct 26–30

The last week of October brings the biggest single stretch of the season. Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday, October 28, and Amazon reports on Thursday, October 29. In the same five days 26 more companies we cover report, among them Visa, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, Merck, Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, Boeing and Intel. For each company below we give the date, what its last published quarter showed in our own analysis, and what that analysis or management's own guidance says to watch this time. Every figure comes from our published reports, which are linked. We don't quote analyst consensus estimates.

One theme runs through the three largest names. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon each booked large paper gains last time on stakes in private AI and space companies. These are "unrealized" gains: the stakes were revalued, but nothing was sold and no cash came in. The gains pushed reported profit far above what the businesses themselves earned. All three also spent more on data centers than ever, and for Alphabet and Amazon that spending was larger than the cash their operations brought in during the June quarter. So this week, operating income (profit from running the business, before investment gains, interest and tax) and cash flow after capital spending tell you more than earnings per share (EPS) does.

The calendar

Dates are the ones the companies have announced. Unless noted, each report covers the July–September 2026 quarter.

Big Tech

Microsoft (MSFT): Wednesday, October 28, fiscal Q1 2027

Last time (fiscal 2026 annual analysis): revenue for the year to June 2026 rose 18% to $331.8 billion. Azure and other cloud services grew 41%, and 43% in the fourth quarter. Reported diluted EPS rose 32% to $17.95, but Microsoft's own adjusted figure, which removes gains on its OpenAI stake, rose 22% to $17.28. Capital spending rose 80% to $115.9 billion, so free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) fell 6% to $67.0 billion in a year when operating income rose 21%. The commercial backlog of signed contracts not yet billed reached $678 billion, up 84%.

What to watch: our analysis said fiscal 2027 depends on margins, not demand. Microsoft Cloud gross margin (the share of cloud revenue left after the direct cost of delivering it) fell year on year by 1.1 points in the March quarter and 1.4 points in the June quarter. This quarter is the first chance to see whether it settles near 66% or keeps falling. It is also the first chance to see whether the $329.1 billion of data-center and other leases signed but not yet started begins to show up in Intelligent Cloud's costs. The 10-K gave no numeric guidance; Microsoft gives that on the earnings call.

Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG): Wednesday, October 28

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion and operating income 30% to $40.8 billion. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion, with its operating margin up from 20.7% to 35.6%. Search revenue rose 16.8% on 13% more paid clicks. Net income nearly quadrupled to $112.2 billion, but $99.0 billion of pre-tax profit was unrealized gains on SpaceX and one unnamed private company. Q2 capital spending of $44.9 billion was larger than the $39.1 billion of operating cash flow, and Alphabet bought back no stock in the first half. Class A (GOOGL) and Class C (GOOG) shares are the same company with the same results.

What to watch: the 10-Q gave no revenue or profit outlook; management said only that it would "significantly increase" infrastructure investment in 2026. Our report named four things. First, whether Cloud's margin holds near 35% as sales of its own AI chip systems (TPUs), which carry real manufacturing cost, grow. Cloud growth will still look inflated, because the year-ago quarter had neither TPU sales nor Wiz, the security firm Alphabet bought in March. Second, depreciation, which rose 43% in the first half while capital spending doubled, and which rises as new data centers switch on. Third, whether paid clicks keep growing. Fourth, the $5.2 billion EU Android fine paid in July, which comes out of this quarter's cash flow. With the SpaceX stake now marked to a share price every quarter, net income will swing again, so judge the quarter on operating income.

Amazon (AMZN): Thursday, October 29

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): sales rose 19.6% to $200.6 billion and operating income rose 43% to $27.5 billion. AWS, the cloud unit, grew 36.8% to $42.2 billion, up from 28.4% growth in Q1. Net income of $62.6 billion included a $50.5 billion non-cash markup on Amazon's Anthropic stake. Free cash flow was negative $7.7 billion for the quarter after $53.1 billion of capital spending, and long-term debt nearly doubled in six months to $128.9 billion.

What to watch: Amazon guided Q3 to net sales of $197.0–202.0 billion (up 9–12%) and operating income of $22.5–26.5 billion, against $17.4 billion a year ago. The low sales growth figure is partly timing: Prime Day fell in Q2 this year but in Q3 last year, which Amazon says costs nearly 4 percentage points of growth. Our report flagged two Q2 one-offs that won't repeat. About $640 million of tariff refunds helped North America, and a $551 million gain on energy contracts helped AWS. So the test is whether North America's margin holds without the refund and the Prime Day boost, and whether AWS keeps growing near 37%. Operating cash flow against capital spending matters more than EPS, which will move with the value of the Anthropic stake.

Payments

Visa (V): Tuesday, October 27, fiscal Q4 and full year 2026

Last time (fiscal Q3 2026 analysis): net revenue rose 14.4% to $11.6 billion on 10–12% growth in spending, transactions and cross-border volume. A $563 million severance charge held GAAP net income growth to 6.8%. Diluted EPS rose 10.4% to $2.97, helped by a 3.1% lower share count after $4.9 billion of buybacks. Operating margin (the share of revenue left after running costs, before interest and tax) slipped to 59.1% from 60.7%.

What to watch: Visa gives no numeric guidance in its filings. Our report expected the reported margin to move back toward 60% or above, since the severance charge and World Cup marketing should not repeat. The more lasting signal is underneath: client incentives (payments to banks and merchants to win card business) grew 17.8% and adjusted costs grew 17%, both faster than revenue. Also watch international transaction revenue, which grew only 6% on 14% cross-border volume growth because calm currency markets shrank the conversion spread. The other check is cash: over nine months operating cash flow was only 93% of net income, down from 112%, because of litigation payouts.

Mastercard (MA): Thursday, October 29

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): net revenue rose 14.1% to $9.28 billion (12% without currency effects), and diluted EPS rose 22.1% to $4.97. More than half the revenue gain came from value-added services such as fraud and data tools, up 20% to $3.83 billion. All three volume measures slowed, with cross-border volume growth down to 12% from 15%. Rebates and incentives rose to 52.4% of gross network fees from 49.9%. First-half operating cash flow fell 3% while net income rose 18%.

What to watch: the 10-Q gave no numeric outlook. Our report pointed to cross-border volume, the most profitable line and the one that slowed most; to the rebate ratio, which caps network revenue growth; and to the currency boost (2 of the 14 points of growth), which fades if the dollar stabilizes. The report expected currency-neutral revenue growth around 12% in the second half, with EPS growing a few points faster than profit because of buybacks. The share count was down 2.9%.

PayPal (PYPL): Tuesday, October 27

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): payment volume rose 10% to $486.4 billion, but revenue rose only 4.8% to $8.68 billion (3% without currency). The take rate, the share of each dollar moved that PayPal keeps as revenue, fell to 1.785% from 1.869% as growth came from lower-fee Braintree processing rather than the branded PayPal button. Operating income fell 5.1%. Diluted EPS fell only 3.1% to $1.25 because the share count was 9.7% lower.

What to watch: management guided Q3 GAAP and non-GAAP EPS to a low-single-digit decline from $1.30 and $1.34 a year ago, and raised full-year non-GAAP EPS to about $5.38. Our report named three tests. First, whether take-rate compression slows. Second, credit: consumer net charge-offs (loans written off as unrecoverable) rose to an annualized 4.8% from 3.6%, while a reserve release flattered reported credit losses. Third, the first restructuring phase, which could bring a $120–140 million charge in the second half.

Coinbase (COIN): Thursday, October 29

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): revenue fell 18.5% to $1.22 billion as consumer spot trading volume dropped 38%. The net loss was $359.5 million ($1.36 a share), mostly from falling prices on crypto Coinbase holds itself, compared with last year's profit boosted by a $1.47 billion gain on its Circle stake. Stripping out one-off items, our report put the business at an operating loss of about $95 million against about $282 million of profit a year earlier. Monthly transacting users fell to 7.6 million from 8.7 million.

What to watch: Coinbase gives no revenue guidance, only that 2026 operating costs will be "slightly higher" than 2025. Our report listed three checks: whether consumer transaction revenue has stopped falling from one quarter to the next; how institutional revenue grows now that the Deribit acquisition is in both years; and whether stablecoin revenue grows faster than the USDC rewards Coinbase pays out. Net income will again move with the price of the 17,311 bitcoin it holds.

Drugmakers

Eli Lilly (LLY): Thursday, October 29

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): revenue rose 48% to $22.97 billion. Volume rose 60% while realized prices fell 13%. Mounjaro and Zepbound together brought in $14.87 billion, 65% of revenue. Diluted EPS rose 26% to $7.94, held back by $2.78 billion ($3.03 a share) of charges for buying early-stage drug companies.

What to watch: Lilly raised full-year revenue guidance to $85–87 billion and guided non-GAAP EPS to $35.50–36.50. By our arithmetic that leaves $21.1–22.1 billion a quarter for the second half, below Q2's $23.0 billion. Part of the reason is that about $680 million of Q2 revenue came from rebate-estimate revisions and Jardiance milestones that won't recur at that size. Q3 is the first quarter to include Medicare obesity patients under the GLP-1 Bridge Program at discounted prices, and Lilly says "the uptake from this expanded access is unknown." Guidance excludes acquired research charges after June 30, so the July deals (about $2.0 billion) could cut reported EPS.

Merck (MRK): Thursday, October 29

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): sales rose 5.1% to $16.6 billion, but Merck posted a $1.3 billion net loss ($0.54 a share) because the $5.7 billion Terns acquisition was expensed at once, with no tax deduction. Excluding deal charges in both years, adjusted EPS was about $2.18 against $2.20, flat despite higher sales. Gross margin fell to 73.5% from 77.5%. Keytruda brought in $8.37 billion, half of all sales, while Winrevair grew 75% and Welireg 67%.

What to watch: full-year guidance is sales of $66.3–67.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.66–2.76, cut from $5.04–5.16 by the Terns charge. Management also lowered its non-GAAP gross margin outlook to about 81% from about 82%. Q3 is the first quarter with US generic competition for both Januvia/Janumet (exclusivity lost in May) and Bridion (July). Those products were $926 million of Q2 sales. The test our report set: whether the newer launches grow fast enough to cover those losses without another step down in gross margin.

Industrials

Caterpillar (CAT): Thursday, October 29

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): sales rose 24% to a record $20.5 billion, mostly on higher volume. The order backlog nearly doubled to $72.1 billion, led by generators and turbines for data centers. Diluted EPS rose 68% to $7.77. The 20.9% operating margin included a $392 million one-time tariff refund; without it the margin was about 19.0%.

What to watch: management expects "strong sales and revenues growth" in Q3, about $600 million of tariff costs, and full-year sales growth in the mid-to-high teens, raised from "low double digits." The outlook assumes no further tariff refunds. Dealers added $1.9 billion of construction-equipment stock in the first half, and Caterpillar expects them to cut it by more than $1.0 billion in Q4. The two numbers our report picked: whether Construction Industries keeps a segment margin near 23% as dealers stop restocking, and whether Resource Industries (mining) keeps more than about 17 cents of profit from each extra dollar of sales.

Boeing (BA): Tuesday, October 27

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): revenue rose 8.0% to $24.56 billion on 171 deliveries (129 of them 737s). Operating earnings turned positive at $156 million, but the swing came almost entirely from the absence of last year's $445 million Justice Department charge. On Boeing's own "core" measure it earned $1 million. The loss per share narrowed to $0.67 from $0.92. Debt fell to $45.9 billion from $54.1 billion at year-end.

What to watch: Boeing gives no financial guidance in its 10-Q. The commitments it does make: 737-7 and 737-10 certification in 2026 (about 40 finished aircraft are parked waiting for it), the 737 production rate moving to 47 a month, and FAA certification of a new 737 line. It also expects a contract reset in Q3 for VC-25B, the Air Force One program that took a $280 million charge last quarter, and it warns of possible further losses on fixed-price defense programs. Quarterly interest of $600 million still uses up all segment profit.

Also in tech and consumer

ServiceNow (NOW): Wednesday, October 28

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): revenue rose 24% to $3.99 billion, but GAAP operating income fell 55% to $162 million. The main causes were the $8.8 billion purchases of Armis and Veza, which brought amortization charges, and higher costs of running AI workloads on outside cloud providers. Subscription gross margin fell to 73% from 80%. Current remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue due within a year, rose 21% to $13.2 billion.

What to watch: management guided Q3 subscription revenue to $3,975–3,980 million (up 20.5%), cRPO growth of 19.5% and a 31% non-GAAP operating margin. The slowdown from 24.5% is partly because US federal on-premise revenue was pulled forward from Q3 into Q2. Our report said the number to watch is subscription gross margin, guided at 75% GAAP for the year. Amortization eventually rolls off; higher AI hosting costs don't.

Intel (INTC): Thursday, October 29

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): revenue rose 25% to $16.1 billion, gross margin rose to 40.4% from 27.5%, and operating income swung to $1.8 billion from a $3.2 billion loss. A $12.5 billion non-cash charge, caused by Intel's rising share price increasing the value of shares it owes the US government, produced an $11.0 billion net loss ($2.16 a share). Non-GAAP EPS was $0.42. PC chip volumes fell 8% while average prices rose 27%.

What to watch: Intel guided Q3 revenue to $15.8–16.8 billion, GAAP gross margin of about 41.0% and GAAP EPS of $0.31 ($0.38 non-GAAP). At the midpoint that is roughly flat on Q2, not continued 25% growth. Our report's three checks: whether data-center growth, which came mainly from higher prices, holds; whether easing PC-chip supply turns into more units sold rather than just price; and whether Intel names a committed outside customer for its 14A manufacturing process. GAAP EPS stays tied to the share price while those government shares remain in escrow.

Coca-Cola (KO): Tuesday, October 27

Last time (Q2 2026 analysis): revenue rose 7% to $13.38 billion on 5% unit case volume growth (how much finished drink reached consumers). Reported EPS rose 16% to $1.03, but comparable EPS, the company's own adjusted measure, rose 11% to $0.97. Without currency effects it rose 9%. The extra came from investment gains, a partly reversed write-down and tax items.

What to watch: full-year guidance was raised to about 5% organic revenue growth (excluding currency and acquisitions), 9–10% comparable EPS growth and about $12.4 billion of free cash flow. For Q3 the company expects about a 3% currency boost to comparable EPS. Our report's checks: whether EMEA's operating income, which fell in Q2, recovers as World Cup marketing ends; Asia Pacific, where 11% volume growth turned into 1% revenue growth on cheaper packs; and North America dairy volume after the July ransomware attack at fairlife, which the company expects to have no material financial impact.

Also reporting this week

Takeaway: This week's biggest reports share a trap. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon each reported profits last time that were inflated by markups on private stakes. Lilly, Merck and Gilead showed the opposite, with profits cut by one-time charges for acquisitions. Intel's bottom line moves with its own share price. For most of these companies, operating income, cash flow and management's guidance will say more about the quarter than the headline EPS figure.

We'll publish an analysis of each of these results as the filings come in. Each company's page shows its latest analysis and next expected report date.