Colgate-Palmolive (CL) earnings preview: what to watch in Q3 2026

Colgate-Palmolive reports its third-quarter 2026 results (July–September) on Thursday, October 30, 2026, the date the company gave in its own investor-relations webcast announcement. We will publish our analysis after the results are out.

What last quarter showed

Our Q2 2026 analysis found two stories pointing in opposite directions:

Organic sales growth strips out currency swings and acquisitions to show how much the existing business actually grew. Of Q2's 4.9% headline growth, 2.4 points came from a weaker US dollar. Base Business EPS is Colgate's own adjusted measure that leaves out restructuring charges; it is not a GAAP figure. The gap between the two EPS figures was $129 million of pre-tax restructuring charges ($0.13 a share) from Colgate's Strategic Growth and Productivity Program.

What management said to expect for 2026

In July, as our Q2 report recorded, Colgate kept its sales guidance and raised its earnings guidance:

• Net sales up 2% to 6%, including a low-single-digit boost from currency.
• Organic sales growth of 1% to 4%, including the drag from exiting private-label pet food.
• Gross margin roughly flat (previously expected to decline).
• Base Business EPS growth in the mid-single digits (previously low- to mid-single digits); GAAP EPS growth still double-digit.
• Advertising up in dollars and as a share of sales.

The 10-Q also warned that management expects "softness across our categories to continue through the second half of 2026", and that shoppers may trade down to store brands or cheaper products.

Three things to watch on October 30

1. North American volume. This was Q2's weak spot: sales fell 3.0% on a 3.9% drop in units sold, driven by lower US toothpaste, bar soap and body wash sales. The division's profit still rose 3% to $192 million, but only because cost savings lifted its gross margin by 320 bps. A second quarter of falling US volume while advertising grows would suggest the extra marketing is not winning shoppers back.

2. Whether savings keep paying for the advertising. In Q2, efficiency savings added 280 bps to gross margin, against 220 bps of higher material costs (including tariffs, net of refunds). Almost all of the gain went into advertising, which rose to 14.5% of sales from 13.3%, so the adjusted operating margin barely moved (21.4% vs 21.3%). Watch the gross-margin bridge: if material costs rise faster than savings, the mid-single-digit EPS growth target has less room.

3. Organic growth against the 1–4% range, and the quality of it. First-half organic growth was 2.6%, near the middle of the range, so the second half can slow somewhat and still land inside it. The mix matters more than the total: in Q2, Hill's Pet Nutrition grew on 3.9% price increases while its volume fell 1.2%, and Latin America's 13.7% reported growth was 8.4 points currency. Growth led by volume, as in Asia Pacific (+4.1% volume), is the sturdier kind.

Also worth a glance: restructuring charges were $300 million in the first half, against a total program estimate of $350–550 million through 2028, so the size of Q3's charge will again decide how far GAAP EPS sits below the adjusted figure.

Takeaway: The question for Q3 is whether Colgate is using cost savings to restart volume growth or only to cover for it. North American unit volume is the clearest single figure to answer it.

This note is for information only and is not investment advice.