Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) earnings preview: what to watch in Q3 2026

Chipotle Mexican Grill will release its third-quarter 2026 results (the three months to September 30) at about 4:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Both times come from the company's own announcement of September 1, 2026 (Chipotle newsroom). The release comes after the market closes, so the share-price reaction shows up on Thursday.

What last quarter showed

Our Q2 2026 analysis found a company growing by opening restaurants, not by selling more in each one:

• Revenue rose 9.3% to $3,348.6 million, but $227.9 million of the $285.2 million increase (80%) came from restaurants too new to count in comparable sales. Comparable restaurant sales ("comps", sales at restaurants open at least 13 full months) rose 2.2%: 1.0 point from more customer visits and 1.2 points from a bigger average check.
• Restaurant-level operating margin fell 2.2 points to 25.2%. That is what's left of revenue after food, labor, rent and other store costs. Beef, freight, insurance, maintenance and extra marketing all cost more than a 1.6% menu price increase brought in.
• Net income fell 7.5% to $403.5 million, and diluted EPS held at $0.32 only because the diluted share count was 5.3% lower after a year of buybacks. Operating income fell 6.0% to $525.6 million.

What management said to expect

The July 29 earnings release raised Chipotle's full-year 2026 comparable sales outlook to growth "in the low single digit range", up from "about flat" in April. It kept the rest: 350 to 370 new restaurants (including 10 to 15 international partner-operated ones), about 80% of new company-owned restaurants with a Chipotlane drive-through pickup lane, and an underlying tax rate of 24% to 26%.

The 10-Q filed two days later was more cautious. It said Chipotle had "recently experienced low-single-digit headwinds to our comparable restaurant sales trends", which it tied to customers reacting to "recent U.S. food safety concerns and geopolitical developments". It also named tariffs as a factor in third-quarter food and packaging costs, without giving a figure. So the full-year guide went up, but the third quarter started weaker.

Three things to watch

1. Whether comps stay positive. First-half comps were +1.4% (Q1 +0.5%, Q2 +2.2%). If the July headwinds lasted through the quarter, the Q3 comp could slip toward flat or below it. A low-single-digit full year then needs a stronger fourth quarter. Watch whether management keeps the "low single digit" outlook or moves it back toward "about flat". Also watch the split between visits and price. In Q2, visits added only 1.0 point, and they were still roughly 4% below Q2 2024 on a two-year basis.

2. Whether restaurant-level margin stops falling. It was 25.2% in Q2, against 27.4% a year earlier. The biggest pressures were food and packaging (29.7% of revenue, up 0.8 points, mainly beef and freight) and other operating costs (14.9%, up 0.9 points). With tariffs now named as a third-quarter cost factor, a margin below 25% would mean pricing is still falling behind costs. Any new menu price increase matters too, because raising prices puts the small gain in visits at risk.

3. Opening pace and what buybacks can still do. Chipotle opened 149 company-owned restaurants in the first half (118 a year earlier). The 350–370 guide implies roughly 200 more in the second half. That adds sales but raises pre-opening and occupancy costs: pre-opening costs rose 54% to $16.4 million in Q2. On earnings per share, the 5.3% lower share count was the only thing holding EPS flat. Interest income, which used to cushion profit, fell 58% to $7.7 million because buybacks used up the cash. If restaurant margins fall again, buybacks can no longer stop EPS from declining.

How we'll judge it

Our Q3 report will check the two things our Q2 analysis flagged: whether comps held in the low single digits despite the headwinds the 10-Q described, and whether restaurant-level margin stopped falling. We'll publish it after the results are out. The figures above come from our Q2 2026 report, which is based on Chipotle's 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and its July 29 earnings release. We have not included analyst consensus estimates.