Intel (INTC) earnings preview: what to watch in Q3 2026

Intel reports its third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, 2026, after the US market close, with a conference call at 2 p.m. Pacific time. The date comes from Intel's own October 6 announcement. Below: what last quarter showed, what management promised for this one, and three figures that will tell you whether the turnaround is holding.

What Q2 2026 showed

Our Q2 2026 analysis found two results pointing in opposite directions.

The business itself made money: operating income (profit from running the business, before financing items and tax) swung positive by almost $5 billion. The loss came from one non-cash accounting item. Intel holds shares in escrow that it owes the US Department of Commerce under its CHIPS Act agreement, and accounting makes it re-value that obligation every quarter at the current share price. Intel's stock rose, so the shares it owes became more valuable, and Intel booked a $12.5 billion loss for the difference. No cash left the company, and that item is the main reason GAAP EPS of $(2.16) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 were so far apart.

Our Q2 report also flagged that growth came from higher prices, not more chips. Client (PC) chip volumes fell 8% while average selling prices rose 27%, and server prices rose 48% on a richer product mix. About half of the $3.0 billion rise in gross profit was the absence of a $797 million impairment booked a year earlier, not better economics.

What management guided for Q3

As quoted in our Q2 report, Intel guided Q3 2026 to:

• Revenue of $15.8–16.8 billion (midpoint $16.3 billion, roughly flat with Q2's $16.1 billion)
• GAAP gross margin of about 41.0% (42.0% non-GAAP)
• GAAP diluted EPS of $0.31 ($0.38 non-GAAP), with a 1% GAAP tax rate

Management also expected shortages of substrates, memory and other components to last into next year, server supply to stay tight, and PC chip supply to ease in the second half of 2026.

Three things to watch

1. Does the escrowed-share charge swing again? The $0.31 GAAP EPS forecast implicitly assumes no large re-valuation. At the end of Q2, 143 million shares were still in escrow and the liability stood at $15.6 billion. If Intel's stock rose during the quarter, expect another paper loss that can push GAAP EPS far below $0.31; if it fell, a paper gain can push it above. Either way, compare the operating line against Q2's $1,796 million, not the bottom line.

2. Gross margin against 41.0%, and whether one-off charges come back. Q2's 40.4% was helped by the absence of last year's impairment and hurt by an inventory charge in the PC business (part of $669 million of higher period charges) and by costlier wafers on the new Intel 18A manufacturing process. A margin at or above 41% with no new inventory write-down would suggest the improvement is real. A miss led by 18A costs would mean the new process is still dragging on profit.

3. Units, not just prices. If PC chip supply eases as management expects, client volume should stop falling from Q2's −8%. Revenue that holds near $16.3 billion only through price would leave growth dependent on mix. On the foundry side, our Q2 report noted that Intel's next process, 14A, needs committed outside customers and the filing named none. A named external 14A customer would be the most important non-financial news in the release.

Bottom line: Intel's guide calls for a flat quarter. The test is whether operating income stays near Q2's $1.8 billion with gross margin around 41%, while the share-price accounting item will again decide the GAAP headline.

We will publish our analysis of Intel's Q3 2026 results after the filing.