Coca-Cola (KO) earnings preview: what to watch in Q3 2026

When the results come out

Coca-Cola will report its third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The date comes from the company's own investor-relations announcement.

What last quarter showed

Our Q2 2026 analysis found a genuine volume quarter with a headline EPS figure that ran ahead of the business:

Revenue rose 6.7% to $13,380 million. Of the 7 points, 4 came from higher concentrate volume (the syrup Coca-Cola sells to bottlers), 2 from price and mix, and 2 from a weaker dollar, less 1 point for businesses sold. Unit case volume, the measure of finished drinks reaching consumers, rose 5%.
Diluted EPS rose 16% to $1.03, but comparable EPS (the company's own adjusted measure) rose 11% to $0.97, and 9% excluding currency. The 6-cent gap was investment gains, a partial reversal of a write-down on African bottlers and tax items.
Operating margin (the share of revenue left after making and selling the drinks, before interest and tax) improved to 34.9% from 34.1%, even though advertising jumped 18% to $1,565 million around the FIFA World Cup campaign.
Buybacks did nothing for EPS: diluted shares were 4,313 million against 4,315 million a year earlier.

What management guided to

As our Q2 report quoted it, Coca-Cola raised its full-year 2026 outlook to about 5% organic revenue growth (from 4%–5%), 9%–10% comparable EPS growth (from 8%–9%), 7%–8% comparable currency-neutral EPS growth excluding acquisitions and divestitures (from 6%–7%), and about $12.4 billion of free cash flow (from about $12.2 billion). The underlying tax rate stayed at 19.9%. For the third quarter specifically, management expected about a 3% currency tailwind to comparable EPS.

Three things to watch in Q3

1. Asia Pacific: does volume start turning into revenue? In Q2, concentrate volume there grew 11% but price/mix took away 9 points, leaving revenue up just 1%, because the company is selling more small, cheap packs. Coca-Cola also lost value share in the region on a loss in India. A second quarter of double-digit volume with near-flat revenue would confirm that growth is being bought with price; a narrowing gap would say the affordability push is paying off.

2. EMEA margin and the marketing bill. EMEA was the only segment where operating income fell in Q2 ($1,309 million vs $1,325 million; down 5% on a comparable, currency-neutral basis), which the filing put down to higher marketing and operating costs. Management called part of the 18% advertising increase "timing". If that is right, Q3 advertising growth should slow and EMEA's operating margin, 42.4% in Q2 against 44.1% a year earlier, should recover. If it does not, the decline is a trend, not timing.

3. How much of EPS growth is currency, and whether the one-offs fade. With about 3 points of currency help guided for the quarter, set comparable EPS growth against comparable currency-neutral growth: the full-year guide implies the underlying gap is roughly 2 points. Q2's reported EPS also carried about 3 cents of securities marks and 1 cent of discrete tax benefits, which need not repeat, so a smaller GAAP-vs-comparable gap is the expected outcome, not a warning sign.

Also on the list

fairlife. A ransomware attack on July 16, 2026 briefly stopped production at the US dairy business. The company did not expect a material financial impact; North America's juice and dairy volume will show whether that held.
The IRS case. Coca-Cola has a $6.0 billion deposit on the table in its transfer-pricing dispute, and the Eleventh Circuit heard the appeal on June 25, 2026. Any ruling or update in the release matters more than one quarter's earnings: the company estimates further exposure of about $14 billion for 2010–2025 if it loses.
African bottling sale timing. The sale was expected to close toward the end of Q3 or in Q4. A Q3 close would cut reported revenue from the fourth quarter onward without changing the underlying business.

We will publish our analysis of the Q3 results on the Coca-Cola company page after the release.