Eli Lilly (LLY) earnings preview: what to watch in Q3 2026

Eli Lilly will report its third-quarter 2026 results (the three months to September 30) on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Lilly confirmed the date and conference call in its own announcement (reprinted here).

What last quarter showed

Our Q2 2026 analysis found a company growing on volume while giving up price:

• Revenue rose 47.7% to $22,974 million. Volume was up 60% and realized prices down 13%, mostly from Mounjaro joining China's national insurance list. Mounjaro and Zepbound together brought in $14,871 million, 65% of revenue, and Mounjaro's sales outside the US ($5,152M) overtook its US sales ($4,791M) for the first time.
• Profit grew more slowly. Net income rose 25.3% to $7,095 million and diluted EPS 26.2% to $7.94. The drag was $2,776 million of acquired IPR&D: when Lilly buys a company whose drugs are still in development, it has to expense most of the price at once. That cost $3.03 a share. Lilly's adjusted EPS was $8.38 (+32.8%), and it still includes those charges.
• About $680 million of revenue was unlikely to repeat at that size: roughly $430 million from revising earlier rebate estimates and $250 million of Jardiance sales milestones.

What management guided

With the Q2 results Lilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $85–87 billion (from $82–85 billion) and its performance margin to 49.0%–50.5% (from 47.0%–48.5%). Performance margin is Lilly's own measure: revenue minus production, R&D and selling costs, as a share of revenue, before IPR&D. Non-GAAP EPS guidance became $35.50–$36.50 (from $35.50–$37.00), after absorbing the $3.03 Q2 IPR&D charge. That range "does not include acquired IPR&D incurred after June 30, 2026."

Three things to watch in Q3

1. Revenue against the $21–22 billion the guidance implies. By our arithmetic, full-year guidance leaves $42.2–44.2 billion for July–December, or $21.1–22.1 billion a quarter, below Q2's $23.0 billion. A Q3 near or above $23 billion without another large rebate true-up would mean the guidance was conservative and probably goes up again. A figure inside the range would mean Lilly expected the slowdown it guided to. The guidance also implies second-half performance margin of roughly 45–48.5%, against about 52.6% in the first half.

2. The first quarter of Medicare obesity volume. Through the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program, Medicare patients can get discounted Lilly obesity medicines from July 1, 2026. Q3 is the first quarter to include them, and Lilly said "the uptake from this expanded access is unknown." The number to watch is the US price line: it was −3% in Q2 against +37% volume. A much bigger US price decline with only modest extra volume would mean the Medicare trade is costing more than it adds, at least at first.

3. New deal charges below the guidance line. After June 30 Lilly paid about $2.0 billion for three infectious-disease companies and agreed to buy AtaiBeckley for about $2.8 billion at closing. Charges from deals like these are not in the EPS range, so GAAP and adjusted EPS can both come in below it for reasons unrelated to how the drugs are selling. Separate the IPR&D line from the rest before judging the quarter. Also watch whether the new Foundayo (orforglipron) pill gets broken out; in Q2 the line it sits in rose only $51 million.

Figures are from our own Q2 2026 analysis of Lilly's 10-Q and August 5 earnings release. This note is for information only and is not investment advice.