Altria (MO) earnings preview: what to watch in Q3 2026

Altria reports its third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, 2026, with a press release at about 7:00 a.m. Eastern and a webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern. The date comes from Altria's own announcement, "Altria to Host Webcast of 2026 Third Quarter and Nine Months Results" (Business Wire, October 15, 2026).

What last quarter showed

Our Q2 2026 analysis found a quarter that hit its target with very little room to spare:

• Revenue was flat. Net revenues were $6,111 million, up 0.1%. Revenues net of excise taxes (the taxes Altria collects and passes on to governments) rose 1.2% to $5,356 million.
• Reported and adjusted EPS went in opposite directions. Reported diluted EPS fell 2.8% to $1.37. Adjusted EPS, the figure management guides to, rose 2.8% to $1.48. The $0.11 gap came mostly from litigation charges, a $78 million charge for moving its smokeless-tobacco plant, and a $114 million non-cash loss on its Anheuser-Busch InBev stake.
• Cigarette pricing only just covered lost volume. Higher prices added $309 million to smokeable revenue, and fewer packs sold plus a shift to cheaper brands took away $279 million. The net gain was about $30 million on a $5.4 billion segment.

What management has guided to

In Q2, Altria narrowed its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $5.61–$5.72, which is growth of 3.5% to 5.5% from $5.42 in 2025. First-half adjusted EPS was $2.80, so the range implies $2.81–$2.92 for the second half, against $2.75 a year earlier: roughly 2% to 6% growth. Management said a bigger part of that will come from cigarette import and export activity (refunds of duties and taxes on imported cigarettes, worth $27 million of segment profit in Q2), now expected to be spread more evenly across Q3 and Q4. The guidance assumes NJOY ACE, its e-vapor device, stays off the US market in 2026.

Three things to watch

1. Does pricing still beat volume, and by how much? In Q2, domestic cigarette shipments fell 3.2%, but Altria estimated its underlying decline at about 4.5% once wholesaler inventory moves are stripped out. Marlboro's retail share fell 1.5 points to 39.5% while Altria's discount brands gained 1.9 points to 3.9%. If the pricing margin over volume and mix narrows from about $30 million to zero or below, segment revenue starts to shrink. Watch the price and volume/mix lines in the smokeable revenue bridge, and whether Marlboro's share keeps sliding toward discount brands.

2. Can on! PLUS turn around oral tobacco? This was the weakest part of Q2. Oral tobacco revenue fell 5.3% to $713 million and adjusted segment profit fell 8.0%. on!, Altria's nicotine pouch brand, shipped 4.2% fewer cans (49.9 million), even though pouches grew to 59.9% of the US oral tobacco market. on!'s share of the pouch category was 14.4%, down 1.7 points from a year earlier but up 1.0 point from Q1. Altria planned a national rollout of the stronger on! PLUS in Q3. The test is whether on! volume grows again and whether its pouch share keeps rising from 14.4%.

3. How much of EPS growth is the business, and how much is buybacks and one-offs? Q2 buybacks were just $55 million, down from $274 million a year earlier. Only $665 million was left on the $2 billion authorisation, which expires December 31, 2026. A lower tax rate (21.5%, helped by a one-time IRS settlement) also lifted reported earnings. Watch the repurchase figure, whether the Board approves a new program, and how much of any EPS beat comes from duty refunds rather than from selling more product. A move to the top of the $5.61–$5.72 range would matter more if it comes from the cigarette and pouch businesses themselves.

We will publish our full analysis of the Q3 filing once it is out.