ANTA — Q2 2026 Financial Report Analysis

Antalpha's second quarter of 2026 had two stories running at once. Its core business — lending to Bitcoin miners and crypto holders through its Antalpha Prime platform — took in $12.2 million of revenue, down 28% from a year earlier, as its biggest borrower repaid and the overall loan book shrank by a third. Separately, a $22.3 million drop in the value of tokenized gold held by its majority-controlled affiliate Aurelion (NASDAQ: AURE) pushed the group to a $12.5 million net loss attributable to Antalpha, against a $0.7 million profit in Q2 2025. Revenue landed at the middle of management's own $11–13 million guidance range, and the company guided lower again for Q3.

The figures come from the company's Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1). Antalpha is a foreign private issuer, so it does not file a full 10-Q: there is no quarterly MD&A or cash-flow statement, and the analysis below is limited to what the release discloses.

At a glance

• Revenue $12.2M, −28% YoY. Excluding the Cango loan facility, which was repaid in Q1, revenue was $11.6M, down about 15% — so most of the decline is one borrower leaving, but the remaining book is shrinking too.
• Loans on the platform fell to $1.35B from $2.05B a year ago (−34%) and from $1.71B at the end of March. Less lending means less fee income next quarter, which is what the lower Q3 guidance reflects.
• The $22.3M gold loss was the main reason for the bottom-line swing. Without Aurelion, Antalpha's own business made a $0.25M operating profit before stock pay (its non-GAAP measure). On a standard GAAP basis it lost $0.67M at the operating line and $4.6M after non-operating items.

How the business works

Antalpha makes two kinds of loans, mostly in partnership with Bitmain, the largest maker of Bitcoin mining machines:

• Supply chain loans finance miners' purchases of Bitmain machines. The machines, plus Bitcoin, secure the loan. Antalpha carries this credit risk and earns a technology financing fee (effectively interest). Its money comes almost entirely from Northstar Digital, a related lender; the cost of that money is reported as funding cost.
• Margin loans let holders borrow against their Bitcoin. Antalpha acts as an agent here: it earns a technology platform fee and, according to the company, does not carry the principal credit risk.

"TVL" (total value of loans) is the outstanding loan balance on the platform at quarter-end — the base that fees are earned on.

The numbers

NM = not meaningful (a swing from profit to loss). Q2 2026 includes Aurelion, which Antalpha took control of on October 10, 2025; Q2 2025 is Antalpha on its own.

For the first half of 2026, revenue was $32.9M (+8% YoY), helped by a strong Q1 ($20.7M), and the net loss attributable to Antalpha was $9.9M against a $2.1M profit in H1 2025.

Where the revenue went

Supply chain lending is where the drop came from. Financing fees fell 40% to $7.7M, which the company attributes to "the wind-down of the Cango facility — substantially repaid in the first quarter of 2026 — together with lower average supply-chain loan balances." The size of that one facility is clear in the annual report (Form 20-F): at December 31, 2025, Antalpha had $556.9M of loans outstanding to Cango, more than half of the $1,001.1M of supply-chain loan principal it reported at that date, and the 20-F says this had been repaid down to $27.2M by April 14, 2026. Cango is a related party. Antalpha's founder and CEO, Xin Jin, chairs Cango's board, though Antalpha owns no Cango shares. That repayment is the main reason total assets fell from $2.41B in December to $0.96B in June.

Margin lending held up. Platform fees rose 10% to $4.5M, which the company attributes to better pricing on margin loans, even though margin-loan balances were 27% lower than a year ago. Net fee margin — fees earned minus funding cost, as a share of loans — rose by about 0.10 percentage points from a year earlier.

The cost of borrowed money did not improve. Funding cost was 68% of supply-chain financing fees, against 67% a year earlier. Of every $1 in interest-like fees Antalpha charges miners, about 68 cents goes to Northstar, its funder. That leaves $2.5M of net spread on supply-chain loans this quarter, compared with $4.3M in Q2 2025.

What the headline numbers hide

• The core business is roughly break-even, and only on the company's own measure. Management says Antalpha Prime "delivered operating profitability." Its standalone figures support that only on a non-GAAP basis: $0.25M of operating income, a 2% margin, after adding back $0.9M of stock-based pay. On a GAAP basis, the standalone operating loss was $0.67M, the standalone net loss was $4.58M, and standalone adjusted EBITDA was −$3.3M. A year earlier, the same non-GAAP measure was $2.1M, a 12% margin. So the lending business is less profitable as well as smaller.
• Antalpha's adjusted EBITDA includes the gold losses. Many companies remove market-value swings from "adjusted" profit; Antalpha keeps them in (its definition "includes unrealized gains or losses on crypto assets"). That makes adjusted EBITDA (−$27.4M) worse than GAAP operating loss, and it is why Q1's adjusted EBITDA margin was 64% while Q2's was −225%. Neither figure says much about the lending business. The company puts the gold-related fair-value loss at $26.2M in adjusted EBITDA: $22.3M in operating expenses plus more below the operating line, including XAUE gold tokens held by Antalpha Prime itself.
• Gold-token swings will keep moving reported results. XAUt (Tether Gold) and XAUE are digital tokens backed by physical gold. They are carried at market value, so every change in the gold price goes straight through the income statement. Aurelion held $34.8M of XAUt and $56.3M of XAUE at June 30, $91.1M in total, compared with $72.5M of XAUt at year-end. In Q1 these holdings produced a $10.9M gain and in Q2 a $22.3M loss. Because Antalpha controls Aurelion but does not own all of it, $17.1M of the $29.6M group net loss was assigned to Aurelion's other shareholders. That is why the loss attributable to Antalpha ($12.5M) is smaller than the total.
• Receivables are up while revenue is down. Accounts receivable — fees billed but not yet collected — were $13.2M at June 30, against $8.0M at December 31 (+66%), even though quarterly revenue fell from $20.7M in Q1 to $12.2M. The release does not explain the increase. It is worth checking against the Q3 figures.
• Cash is thin, and there is no cash-flow statement. Cash and cash equivalents were $4.3M at June 30, down from $7.9M at year-end, plus $18.8M of crypto assets including the USDC stablecoin. Equity attributable to Antalpha shareholders was $112.1M. As a 6-K filer, the company published no quarterly cash-flow statement, so we can't test how much of the reported profit or loss turned into cash.
• One-offs. Q2 has no restructuring charge. The $3.3M of severance in H1 was all booked in Q1.
• A small per-share oddity. The diluted loss per share (−$0.47) is smaller than the basic loss (−$0.52). Usually, when a company loses money, potential new shares are left out and the two figures are equal. The release does not explain this, so treat the basic −$0.52 as the more conservative per-share figure.

Counterparty and collateral risk

The company says it has recorded "no principal loss since inception," which is true as far as it goes. The annual report also describes risks that a quarter without losses would not show:

• Rehypothecation. Antalpha passes the Bitcoin that borrowers pledge on to Northstar, its funder, as security. The 20-F says Antalpha does "not have direct control over the rehypothecated collateral." If Northstar ran into financial trouble, Antalpha "may be unable to recover the Bitcoin collateral" that it still owes back to borrowers. On the balance sheet, $268.0M of crypto collateral was payable to customers (current) at June 30.
• Concentration. The 20-F says Northstar "has historically provided almost all of the funding," and that all of the financed machines are Bitmain's. Antalpha's lending capacity therefore depends on one funder and one supplier.
• Hard-to-value collateral. Mining machines make up part of the collateral, and the company values them itself with "significant management judgment." At year-end it put total collateral at $1.78B, a loan-to-value ratio of 57%: loans equal to 57% of the estimated collateral value. Machines fall in price along with Bitcoin, and the 20-F warns that selling them in a default might not cover the loan.

Outlook

Management guides Q3 2026 revenue of $10–12 million, assuming "solid demand for crypto-collateralized financing" and market conditions "broadly consistent with recent trends." The $11M midpoint is about 10% below Q2's $12.2M, which fits the shrinking loan book. The Q2 guide of $11–13M was met at $12.2M.

Our read: now that the Cango facility is almost fully repaid, the lending business needs new borrowers to grow, and Q2's TVL showed lending still going down, by 21% from March to June. Margin-loan pricing is the one line still improving. Whether Antalpha's group results show a profit or a loss is likely to depend more on the gold price, through Aurelion, than on lending, at least until the loan book stops shrinking. The newer projects — the Nina AI agent ("several thousand registered users") and a tokenized-gold yield program — have no disclosed revenue yet. In the next quarter, watch three things: whether TVL stabilizes above about $1.3B, whether funding cost falls below 68% of financing fees, and whether receivables come back down.

Takeaway: Leave out the gold-token swing, and Antalpha's lending business still had a weak quarter. It earned just $0.25M on its own non-GAAP basis, after $2.1M a year ago, on a loan book a third smaller. Q3 guidance is lower again. The record of no principal losses is real, but the business has lost its biggest borrower and still depends almost entirely on one related-party funder.