BXBL — Q2 2026 Financial Report Analysis

Overview

BOXABL, the Las Vegas maker of factory-built "Casita" tiny homes, sold just 7 units in the second quarter of 2026 for $495,000 of revenue and lost $9.6 million. That loss is less than a third of the $30.8 million lost a year earlier, but almost none of the improvement came from selling more homes. Two 2025 costs simply didn't come back: a heavy advertising campaign that was raising money from small investors (not selling homes), and a one-time $8.3 million write-off of 68 unsellable units. The quarter ended before BOXABL became a public company (its merger with the blank-check company FG Merger II Corp closed on July 17, 2026). Its own financial statements still carry "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern, which is the auditors' and management's formal warning that the business may not have enough money to keep running for the next 12 months without new funding.

At a glance

• $495,000 revenue from 7 Casitas (Q2). Sales rose 77% from a very small base: roughly one home a fortnight from a 174,000 sq ft factory.
• $3.9 million gross loss. Each home cost far more to book than it sold for, mostly because of $3.8 million of inventory write-downs on units already built and sitting unsold.
• $14.7 million unrestricted cash at June 30, down from $29.0 million on December 31. The company used $15.9 million in operations in six months, about $2.6 million a month.

The numbers

This is a pre-merger quarter, so the figures below are those of the operating business ("Legacy BOXABL"), which the 10-Q attaches as Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2. The 10-Q's main statements belong to the blank-check shell, which had no operations.

For the first half as a whole, revenue was $2.05 million (27 Casitas to 11 customers) against $402,000 a year earlier, and the net loss was $17.2 million against $41.1 million. One customer, the City of Henderson made up about 54% of first-half revenue; a hotel customer, Hideaway Inn, another 13%. So the first-half sales jump rests largely on one municipal order.

The per-share loss is not a useful figure here: it is calculated on Legacy BOXABL's roughly 3.0 billion pre-merger common shares, not on the roughly 241.5 million shares (9.4 million Class A plus 232.1 million Class B) outstanding after the merger closed.

Where the money went

Cost of goods sold (the cost of building what was sold, plus related write-downs) was $4.35 million in Q2. Of that, only $529,000 was materials, labor and factory overhead. The rest was $2.99 million of "inventory adjustments", writing finished homes down to the price they can realistically be sold for, plus $839,000 for a new allowance against slow-moving units, a policy adopted on January 1, 2026. Across the first half, the company says these adjustments were about 72% of cost of goods sold. In plain terms: BOXABL is still marking down homes it built earlier and couldn't sell at the original value.

Sales and marketing fell from $15.1 million to $2.0 million. The filing says the 2025 figure reflected "a significant increase in advertising for our Regulation A and Regulation D offerings", the online share sales to retail investors that funded the company and ended in June 2025. That was spending to raise capital, not to sell Casitas. The 2026 budget goes to targeted outreach in the California backyard-home (ADU, or "accessory dwelling unit") market, a better CRM system and more salespeople.

General and administrative costs fell from $5.9 million to $3.5 million in Q2. For the half, the filing attributes the drop mainly to a $2.7 million stock-settlement charge in 2025 that did not recur, partly offset by $1.1 million more in legal and reorganization costs in 2026.

What the headline numbers hide

• The loss narrowed because spending stopped, not because the business got bigger. Revenue rose $216,000 year on year. The loss shrank by $21.2 million. Nearly all of that came from the end of investor-advertising spend and the absence of the 2025 one-time write-off.
• Inventory is huge relative to sales. At June 30 BOXABL held $17.9 million of inventory: 189 finished Casitas (carried at $10.0 million, about $53,000 each) and 187 partly built units ($5.9 million). It sold 27 in the first half, so finished-goods stock alone is about seven half-years of sales at that pace. This is why write-downs keep appearing, and more are possible if prices or demand disappoint. Production has been slowed (15 units in Q2 versus 25 a year earlier) to match deliveries.
• Cash runway (how long cash lasts at the current burn rate). Unrestricted cash of $14.7 million against about $2.6 million a month of operating outflow is roughly 5.6 months, measured at June 30. The merger then added about $6.4 million of net cash, and early termination of part of a share-forward deal returned another $1.65 million. A simple addition (ours, not a figure the company reports) gives around $23 million, or roughly nine months at the first-half burn rate. The company also holds $4.0 million of restricted cash it cannot spend freely.
• Most of the SPAC cash went somewhere else. The blank-check company's trust released $47.2 million after shareholders redeemed 3,466,086 shares (about $36.0 million). Of that, $31.1 million was prepaid to two counterparties, Camac Fund and FG Capital Partners, under a "forward purchase agreement". That money comes back only as those counterparties sell or terminate the roughly 2.82 million shares still covered, at prices linked to BXBL's trading price. $5.9 million went on transaction costs and $3.7 million on directors' and officers' insurance. FG Capital Partners is a related party of the SPAC's sponsor.
• Going-concern warning vs the 12-month claim. Legacy BOXABL's statements say that "absent additional action, the Company will require additional liquidity to continue operations over the next 12 months." The combined company's 10-Q says that existing cash, the merger proceeds "and cash generated from sales of our products" will be sufficient for the next twelve months. That sufficiency claim depends on sales growth the first half did not show.
• More shares are coming. On September 25, 2026 the company signed a $100 million "at-the-market" program to sell new Class A shares into the market over time. An S-3 also registers up to 3.31 million shares for resale by SPAC-era holders. And $82.4 million of grant-date value in 119.2 million pre-merger restricted stock units has never been expensed, because their performance condition was judged "not probable". If that changes, a large non-cash charge would hit the income statement at once.
• Weak financial controls. Management concluded its disclosure controls were "not effective", citing material weaknesses in IT controls and in financial-statement review, with "significant turnover" in finance staff. The 10-Q was filed late (an NT 10-Q on August 17), with the company saying it needed time to value the forward purchase agreement. The CFO, Martin Costas, left and was replaced by Larry King effective September 14, 2026.
• One inconsistency to note. The MD&A's trend paragraph says 846 Casitas were manufactured and 335 delivered "from the period of July 16, 2026 through August 21, 2026". The financial-statement notes say 7 units shipped between June 30 and August 14. The larger figures look like cumulative totals since production began, not a five-week figure. We rely on the notes.

Outlook

There is no revenue or earnings guidance. What the filing offers instead:

• Backlog: 341 units under contract as of August 14, 2026. That is more than twelve times first-half deliveries. But the company itself warns that sales "may continue to face delays due to the time needed for site preparation, arranging funding for the project [for] the purchaser" and other steps. With 7 units shipped in the six weeks after quarter-end, converting that backlog is the key test.
• New approvals: California approval for the one-bedroom Casita (April 2026, two-bedroom in November 2025), plus certification to build in Texas (April) and reinstatement in Arizona (June). Since April, BOXABL also sells an "all-inclusive" package that bundles installation and site work; about 9% of units under contract use it.
• A large but non-binding deal: on August 25, 2026 BOXABL signed a product purchase agreement with LC Vegas Acquisitions for up to 1,580 three-bedroom ranch homes over three years, valued at up to about $233 million. The buyer is not required to buy any homes and can terminate at any time. The homes are a new design still needing Nevada plan approval, and BOXABL agreed to give the buyer $1–3 million of stock for deposits of $10 million or more.

Our read: the Q2 cost cuts were real, but the business still loses about $9–10 million a quarter on less than $1 million of sales. The cash on hand after the merger looks to cover roughly three quarters of operations at the current pace. So the second half of 2026 has to show either a step-change in deliveries from that 341-unit backlog or a turn to the new $100 million share-sale program. The second would dilute existing holders. The Q3 10-Q, the first as a combined public company, will show both.

Takeaway: BOXABL's loss fell 69% because it stopped paying to advertise its own share sales and stopped taking giant write-offs, not because it sold many more homes (7 in the quarter). With a going-concern warning, about $2.6 million a month of cash burn and a new $100 million share-sale program, the question for the next two quarters is whether the 341-unit backlog turns into deliveries before the company has to sell a lot of new stock.