CCEP — H1 2026 Financial Report Analysis

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP), the bottler that makes, sells and delivers Coca-Cola-system drinks across Western Europe, Australia, the Pacific, the Philippines and Indonesia, grew first-half 2026 revenue 4.4% to €10.72 billion and reported operating profit 6.9% to €1.46 billion. Reported diluted EPS rose 9.1% to €2.17. Two things flatter those growth rates. The half had six more selling days than last year's (it ended on 3 July 2026, against 27 June 2025), and that reverses in Q4. EPS also got help from a share buyback. Adjusted for selling days, volume grew 2.2%, and Q2 revenue growth slowed to 3.3% at constant currency. Management left its full-year guidance unchanged.

At a glance

• Revenue +6.1% at constant currency, +4.4% as reported. Constant currency means the growth rate with exchange-rate moves stripped out. The 1.7-point gap is mostly the weaker Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Australian dollar against the euro. Southeast Asia revenue fell 3.3% in euros but rose 9.0% in local currency terms.
• Comparable operating profit +8.1% at constant currency, to €1.48bn. "Comparable" is CCEP's adjusted figure, which strips out restructuring costs and one-off gains. Profit grew faster than revenue because operating expenses fell as a share of sales.
• Comparable free cash flow of €435m, up only 2%, while €868m went back to shareholders (€503m of buybacks and €365m of dividends). Net debt rose from €9.82bn to €10.28bn over the half.

Results summary

A "unit case" is the industry's volume measure: 24 eight-ounce servings, about 5.7 litres. Revenue per unit case is the average price CCEP realises per case, after promotions and after the effect of selling a different mix of brands and pack sizes. CCEP does not publish H1 2025 volume or revenue per case on the same basis in this release, so only the changes are shown.

Where the growth came from

Measured per selling day, volume grew 2.2% and revenue per case rose 0.4%. Together that is roughly 2.6% of growth from the business itself. The six extra days account for the rest of the 6.1% constant-currency figure.

Europe (74% of revenue): revenue €7.91bn, +6.4% at constant currency. Volume rose 1.6% on a days-adjusted basis. Q2 picked up to +2.3%, which CCEP puts down to FIFA World Cup promotions and "favourable weather in June". Revenue per case rose 1.3%. The filing attributes that to "positive brand mix, headline price increases & promotional optimisation, partly offset by negative pack mix impact from growth of large pack formats". In other words, shoppers buying for home are moving to big bottles and multipacks, which cost less per litre. Away-from-home volume (cafés, restaurants, venues, kiosks) was down 0.6% for the half, while drinks bought for home rose 3.1%. By market, at constant currency:

APS (Australia, Pacific & Southeast Asia): revenue €2.81bn, up just 0.4% in euros but +5.4% at constant currency. Volume rose 3.5% days-adjusted (Q2: +5.0%). Revenue per case fell 1.5% because CCEP no longer distributes Suntory's alcoholic drinks. That ended in Australia in June 2025 and in New Zealand in December 2025, and the filing estimates it cost APS about 3% in revenue per case. Excluding alcohol, Australia/Pacific revenue grew 10%. In Southeast Asia, volume grew by mid-single digits in both the Philippines and Indonesia. Indonesia's soft drinks are growing again after falling 14.8% in H1 2025, and the Philippines' operating margin (EBIT margin) is "close to [its] 10% target".

By category, energy drinks (mainly Monster) grew 18.6% and sports drinks 12.1%. Coke Zero Sugar rose 10.7%, while regular Coca-Cola fell 2.6%. Coca-Cola-branded drinks are 58.5% of volume, so the move from regular to Zero matters more than the faster-growing smaller categories.

Margins: costs grew slower than sales

Cost of sales per case rose 0.6%, compared with 3.6% in H1 2025. CCEP says the increase came from higher concentrate costs, which are tied to its own selling prices, plus manufacturing inflation and taxes. Gross margin was broadly flat at 35.3%. The margin gain came from operating expenses. Selling, distribution and administrative costs together rose 2.2% to €2,353m, while revenue rose 4.4%, so their share of revenue fell from 22.4% to 21.9%. Administrative expenses were flat at €674m. Management credits "productivity & efficiency programmes & management of discretionary spend".

Takeaway: Underlying growth was about 2.6% (days-adjusted volume +2.2%, price/mix +0.4%). Six extra selling days and cost control turned that into 6–8% constant-currency growth in revenue and comparable profit. The extra days reverse in Q4, so full-year guidance of 3–4% revenue and ~7% profit growth implies a slower second half. Hitting the profit target depends on continued cost discipline, not faster sales.

What the headline numbers hide

• The calendar. Reported volume grew 5.6%, but per selling day it grew 2.2%. Q4 2026 will have six fewer days than Q4 2025, so second-half reported growth will look weaker than the business's real pace. That is why the full-year guide of 3–4% revenue growth is below the H1 rate.
• Currency. At current exchange rates, management expects currencies to reduce full-year revenue growth by about 0.4 points and operating profit growth by about 0.1 points. In H1 the hit was larger at the revenue level (4.4% reported against 6.1% constant currency). In Southeast Asia, currency turned 9% local growth into a 3.3% fall in euros.
• One-offs in both years, and they distort the regional numbers. Reported operating profit includes €46m of restructuring charges (mostly expected severance under the efficiency programme running to 2028) and a €23m gain on selling a property in Germany. H1 2025 had similar restructuring (€46m), a €30m German property gain, a €19m reversal of a German labour-law provision, and €27m of accelerated amortisation from ending the Beam Suntory relationship. As a result, Europe's reported operating profit grew only 3.7% against 7.6% comparable, and APS's reported operating profit jumped 18.4% against 3.3% comparable. The comparable figures are the better read in both cases. At group level the adjustments nearly cancel out (€23m this year, €26m last year).
• About a third of EPS growth came from the buyback. Profit attributable to shareholders rose 5.9%, but diluted shares outstanding fell from 459m to 446m (-2.8%), lifting EPS growth to 9.1%. The tax rate was 26% in both halves, so tax did not help. Net finance costs rose from €98m to €117m, a drag. By 31 July, €593m of the €1bn 2026 buyback had been done.
• Cash conversion is adequate, not strong. Operating cash flow of €1,035m was 1.04 times profit after tax of €991m. Free cash flow rose only 2.4% to €435m. Software spending rose (€121m against €87m), and net interest paid rose from €100m to €133m. Working capital also helped less than last year: suppliers funded €336m of the seasonal stock and receivables build, against €705m in H1 2025. To reach the full-year target of at least €1.7bn, CCEP needs about €1.27bn of free cash flow in the second half. That is consistent with a business whose cash comes in mostly later in the year, but it is a large H2 weighting.
• Debt rose to fund shareholder returns. Buybacks plus dividends (€868m) were double the free cash flow. Total borrowings rose from €10.69bn to €12.19bn, and net debt (borrowings minus cash and short-term deposits) rose from €9.82bn to €10.28bn. Credit ratings were unchanged at A3 (Moody's) and A- (Fitch), both with a stable outlook.

Outlook

Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed unchanged. It is on a comparable, constant-currency basis:

• Revenue growth of 3% to 4%. That absorbs about a 0.5% drag on group revenue from the Suntory alcohol exit. The six extra days in Q1 are offset by six fewer in Q4, so the calendar nets out over the year.
• Cost of sales per case up about 1.5%, with commodities about 90% hedged for the year.
• Operating profit growth of about 7%, against +8.1% in H1.
• Comparable effective tax rate of about 26%, capex of about 5% of revenue, and comparable free cash flow of at least €1.7bn.
• Dividend payout of about 50% of comparable EPS, and a €1bn buyback over the year.

Management warns that "the consumer environment remains challenging". The filing's risk section says Middle East tensions have "contributed to renewed inflationary pressures" in energy and supply chains, which matters for a business that buys PET plastic, aluminium, sugar and fuel. The 90% hedge protects 2026 costs, so any lasting rise in input costs would show up mostly in 2027.

Our read: H1 left CCEP ahead of its ~7% profit target, with no help from tax and no net help from one-offs. Second-half reported growth will slow because of the six fewer selling days and the Suntory exit, so a weaker H2 is expected, not a warning sign. The things to watch in the Q3 trading update are whether European volume keeps growing once the World Cup and June weather are past, whether Germany's volume declines get worse, and whether revenue per case in Europe stays positive as shoppers keep moving to cheaper-per-litre large packs.