CLMT — Q2 2026 Financial Report Analysis

Calumet's adjusted profit more than doubled in the second quarter of 2026, yet it still posted a net loss of $95.9 million. The two facts fit together. The core specialty business (lubricant base oils, solvents, waxes and the fuels and asphalt made alongside them) earned much more because the Middle East conflict tightened global supply of refined products and pushed prices up faster than crude costs. But a $163.6 million non-cash charge tied to US renewable-fuel blending credits, plus $26.0 million of losses on hedges, pulled the bottom line below zero.

At a glance

• Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $175.2M, up from $76.5M (+129%). This is Calumet's preferred profit measure: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and a list of non-cash items, plus the value of clean-fuel tax credits. It more than doubled, nearly all of it from the Specialty Products and Solutions segment.
• Specialty Products and Solutions Adjusted EBITDA of $161.7M vs $66.8M. Average selling price per barrel rose 45.5% to $166.91 while production rose 12.9%. Of the $384.6M increase in segment sales, $316.6M came from price.
• The balance-sheet liability for renewable-fuel credits ("RINs") jumped to $480.2M from $169.3M in December. It is an accounting estimate today, but it becomes real cash if regulators deny the company's pending exemption request for 2025.

The numbers

Operating margin is the share of sales left after running the business but before interest and tax. A percentage change between two losses doesn't tell you much, so for net income and EPS the table shows the dollar improvement.

Takeaway: In this quarter, Calumet behaved like a business that profits from global refining shortages. Its specialty segment's margin per barrel more than doubled because prices rose faster than crude costs. Two things stand between that and shareholders: about $52M a quarter of interest on $2.26B of debt, and a renewable-fuel credit liability that has nearly tripled since December.

What drove the quarter, segment by segment

Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS): the engine. Segment sales rose 61.3% to $1,012.5M. The gross-profit bridge in the 10-Q shows how: higher selling prices added $316.6M and higher raw-material costs took back $216.0M. That leaves about $100M of extra spread (the gap between what Calumet pays for crude and what it sells products for). Higher volumes added another $15.9M. Management gives three reasons. First, price increases announced earlier fully took effect while crude costs fell during the quarter. Second, the Shreveport, Louisiana refinery ran cleanly again, after production problems in Q1 2026 and a planned maintenance shutdown in June 2025. Third, there is a "global shortage in specialty products": with much of the world's high-grade (Group III) base-oil supply "trapped within the Persian Gulf," buyers switched to the Group I and Group II grades Calumet makes. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment rose 142% to $161.7M, and its margin was 16.0% vs 10.6%.

Montana/Renewables (MR): a smaller quarter by volume, a better one by margin. Montana Renewables makes renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF, jet fuel made from fats and vegetable oils). The plant was shut from March into early May for its MaxSAF 150 expansion and maintenance, which took about 48 days. The company estimates it lost about 450,000 barrels of production, and renewable fuel output fell 41.8% to 7,011 barrels per day. Even so, segment Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes rose to $26.6M from $16.3M. Average selling price per barrel was up 47.2%, and management credits better renewable margins after the EPA set record 2026–2027 blending mandates in March. $15.9M of the $26.6M is the value of Section 45Z clean-fuel production tax credits. Without those credits the segment earned $10.7M of Adjusted EBITDA, compared with a $5.1M loss a year earlier. The asphalt business attached to the Montana refinery was weaker until June, because asphalt prices lagged crude.

Performance Brands (PB): squeezed on costs. These are packaged and synthetic specialty products, including TruFuel pre-mixed small-engine fuel. Sales rose 28.4% to $103.6M on record TruFuel volumes, but Adjusted EBITDA fell to $6.3M from $13.5M. Raw-material costs rose $16.3M, and the segment had raised prices by only $3.4M because increases take time to reach customers. The segment also took a $7.3M charge from LIFO inventory accounting, which charges the most recently bought (more expensive) feedstock to cost of sales first.

What the headline numbers hide

• The RINs charge is non-cash today, but the liability behind it isn't small. US refiners must blend renewable fuel or buy credits called RINs. Small refineries can apply for an exemption. Calumet books its obligation at current market RIN prices. The balance-sheet liability reached $480.2M at June 30, up from $169.3M at year-end 2025. It rose because higher mandates lifted RIN prices and because the EPA has not yet decided on Calumet's 2025 exemption petitions. In August 2025 Calumet won full or partial relief for 2019–2024, but if 2025 is denied, much of this becomes a real cash cost. The adjusted figures exclude it entirely.
• Hedges are giving back part of the upside. Calumet sells "crack spread swaps", contracts that lock in a refining margin. When margins rise, they cost money. Q2 had $23.1M of realized settlements, and these are real cash that stays inside Adjusted EBITDA. As of July 31 the company still had 10,000 barrels/day hedged at $21.66 for Q3 2026 and 15,000 barrels/day at $20.70 for Q4 2026. Management describes benchmark cracks as "reaching record levels," so a strong market means more settlement losses in the second half.
• The tax benefit is a credit sale, not a structural tax rate. Calumet converted from a partnership (MLP) to a corporation in July 2024. We found no tax-receivable agreement or similar conversion-related charge in the filing. The $21.2M tax benefit this quarter "was related to the sale of CFPCs" (the 45Z credits) generated at Montana Renewables. Before June 2025 those credits were fully reserved because none had been sold yet. The last conversion leftover, 2,000,000 warrants, was fully exercised this quarter, which moved $7.8M from warrant equity into common stock.
• Gap between GAAP and adjusted. Net loss of $95.9M becomes $159.3M of Adjusted EBITDA. On top of interest, depreciation and tax, the add-backs are $163.6M of RINs expense, $10.7M of maintenance-shutdown amortization, $7.6M of stock compensation, and $11.9M of fees on the Shreveport supply-and-offtake agreement (an inventory-financing arrangement with J. Aron covering the Shreveport refinery). That last item is a recurring cost of how Calumet funds its working capital, so the adjusted figure looks better than the cash economics.
• Year-to-date figures look worse than Q2 alone. First-half G&A expense was $105.4M vs $53.2M. Most of the difference is stock compensation, a $45.4M expense this year against a $13.3M benefit last year, which suggests awards tied to the share price. First-half derivative losses were $141.4M.
• Cash conversion: a good quarter, a flat half. Q2 operating cash flow was $92.3M, but first-half operating cash flow was only $6.1M against $225.3M of Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes. Receivables rose $185.5M in the half (to $417.0M, +79% since December) as higher prices increased what customers owe. That was partly offset by $101.3M of higher payables.
• Leverage is the constraint. Total debt was $2,258.7M at June 30 and stockholders' equity was negative $1,137.1M (liabilities exceed assets on the books). Q2 interest expense of $52.0M equals about 30% of Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes.

Balance sheet moves since quarter-end

• July: Calumet redeemed $100M of 9.75% notes due 2028 at 102.438% of face value and paid off the $15.5M Montana terminal financing, retiring $115M of debt in total.
• August 28: Montana Renewables amended its US Department of Energy loan guarantee. The next expansion now mostly repurposes existing equipment in smaller stages instead of a large new build. The maximum loan principal was cut to $815.8M, plus up to $232.8M of capitalized interest (8-K filed September 1). The DOE loan was carried at $835.2M on the June 30 balance sheet.
• September 11: the main revolving credit facility's commitments rose from $500M to $600M, subject to its borrowing base. At June 30, total liquidity was $581.6M.

Outlook

Management gives no EBITDA guidance. It forecasts 2026 capital spending of $130M–$160M. It expects specialty and fuel margins to stay "volatile, and above historical industry margins in the near-term due to the Iran conflict." It says renewable margins after the MaxSAF restart were "significantly above the prior year and have continued early on in the third quarter." Management adds that "the durability and magnitude of these conditions remain uncertain" and depend on shipping recovering through the Strait of Hormuz.

Our read: Q3 should be the first full quarter with Montana back at full rates and SAF making up more of its output, alongside a still-tight specialty market. The adjusted numbers will probably stay strong. Three things decide whether shareholders benefit: (1) the EPA's decision on the 2025 small-refinery exemption, which sets how much of the $480M RINs liability becomes cash, (2) the size of second-half hedge settlements if cracks stay high, and (3) whether management keeps putting cash into debt reduction, as the $115M July repayment did. Results for Q3 2026 are likely in early November.